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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 1, 2020
Updated: Thu Oct 1 07:46:03 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 1, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 1, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 1, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 1, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 1, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 1, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Oct 04, 2020 - Mon, Oct 05, 2020 D7Wed, Oct 07, 2020 - Thu, Oct 08, 2020
D5Mon, Oct 05, 2020 - Tue, Oct 06, 2020 D8Thu, Oct 08, 2020 - Fri, Oct 09, 2020
D6Tue, Oct 06, 2020 - Wed, Oct 07, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010744
   SPC AC 010744

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Upper pattern is expected to trend towards a less amplified western
   CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough configuration early next week.
   Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement and several
   shortwave troughs are expected to move within the eastern upper
   trough. However, the general expectation is for the better low-level
   moisture to remain displaced south of the stronger forcing for
   ascent and stronger vertical shear.

   ..Mosier.. 10/01/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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