Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 2, 2020
Updated: Fri Oct 2 07:43:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Oct 05, 2020 - Tue, Oct 06, 2020
D7
Thu, Oct 08, 2020 - Fri, Oct 09, 2020
D5
Tue, Oct 06, 2020 - Wed, Oct 07, 2020
D8
Fri, Oct 09, 2020 - Sat, Oct 10, 2020
D6
Wed, Oct 07, 2020 - Thu, Oct 08, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020741
SPC AC 020741
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to persist within the
westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific into
western North America through the middle of next week, with broad
downstream troughing east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic.
Toward the middle of next week, there could be some re-amplification
of the ridging along an axis near the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, ahead
of a large developing mid-level trough approaching the Pacific
Coast. As this occurs, the large-scale downstream troughing may
amplify along a negatively tilted axis from Hudson Bay into western
Atlantic.
While embedded short wave developments remain much more uncertain,
this regime appears likely to maintain a west-northwesterly to
northwesterly mid-level flow across much of the nation. The
development of a southerly return flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico appears unlikely, maintaining generally dry and/or stable
conditions with low convective potential.
..Kerr.. 10/02/2020
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