Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 3, 2020
Updated: Sat Oct 3 08:04:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Oct 06, 2020 - Wed, Oct 07, 2020
D7
Fri, Oct 09, 2020 - Sat, Oct 10, 2020
D5
Wed, Oct 07, 2020 - Thu, Oct 08, 2020
D8
Sat, Oct 10, 2020 - Sun, Oct 11, 2020
D6
Thu, Oct 08, 2020 - Fri, Oct 09, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030802
SPC AC 030802
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that initially broad
large-scale ridging, across the northern mid-latitude eastern
Pacific into western Northern America, may undergo amplification
while shifting eastward during the early to middle portion of the
coming work week. As this occurs, a significant short wave impulse,
digging within increasingly northwesterly flow to its east, appears
likely to contribute to substantive trough amplification along a
negatively tilted axis from the Hudson Bay vicinity into the western
Atlantic by late next week. This probably will be accompanied by
another substantive cold intrusion across the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, and a building surface ridge beneath increasingly
confluent mid-level flow, east of the Mississippi Valley and across
much of the Gulf Coast states. This should maintain/reinforce
generally dry and stable boundary-layer conditions across all but
the Florida Peninsula. Even if trends depicted in the latest
(03/00Z) ECMWF (which include the faster inland progression of a
significant mid-level trough on the leading edge of a strong zonal
flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, and deeper surface
troughing across the higher plains by early next weekend) are
correct, convective potential appears low through this period.
..Kerr.. 10/03/2020
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