Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 4, 2020
Updated: Sun Oct 4 08:02:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Oct 07, 2020 - Thu, Oct 08, 2020
D7
Sat, Oct 10, 2020 - Sun, Oct 11, 2020
D5
Thu, Oct 08, 2020 - Fri, Oct 09, 2020
D8
Sun, Oct 11, 2020 - Mon, Oct 12, 2020
D6
Fri, Oct 09, 2020 - Sat, Oct 10, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040800
SPC AC 040800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models indicate that an initially strong, zonal
mid/upper jet, emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, may
undergo considerable amplification while progressing inland across
the U.S. Pacific coast next weekend. This may include the evolution
of a large and deep mid-level trough across the Great Basin into the
Great Plains, and significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
Rockies by late next weekend. This may be preceded by a developing
tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, which may eventually
accelerate northward or northeastward, inland ahead of the
amplifying trough in the westerlies.
Spread among the various model output concerning these developments
at this extended range remains quite large. However, increasing
severe weather potential appears at least a possibility, perhaps
most notably by Sunday across parts of the Great Plains. Even then,
though, while the boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico probably will have seasonably high dew points, the
extratropical cyclogenesis may occur rather far inland of the Gulf
coast (over the central or northern Great Plains), and low-level
moisture return through the Great Plains may just be commencing.
..Kerr.. 10/04/2020
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