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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 23, 2020
Updated: Fri Oct 23 08:30:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 23, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 23, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 23, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 23, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 23, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Oct 23, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Oct 26, 2020 - Tue, Oct 27, 2020 D7Thu, Oct 29, 2020 - Fri, Oct 30, 2020
D5Tue, Oct 27, 2020 - Wed, Oct 28, 2020 D8Fri, Oct 30, 2020 - Sat, Oct 31, 2020
D6Wed, Oct 28, 2020 - Thu, Oct 29, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230828
   SPC AC 230828

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A positive-tilt large-scale trough over the western U.S. on Monday
   will likely evolve into a closed mid-level low and meander eastward
   into the southern Great Plains by the Wednesday-Thursday (day 6-7)
   timeframe.  Medium-range model guidance varies on the
   timing/placement of mid-level low and subsequent surface reflection
   over the lower MS Valley.  Given the model predictability concerns
   during the latter half of the extended period, a
   predictability-too-low highlight will be maintained.  If strong
   storms develop during the late Wednesday through Friday period next
   week, the potential at this point would focus over the lower MS
   Valley and central Gulf Coast.

   ..Smith.. 10/23/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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