Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 24, 2020
Updated: Sat Oct 24 08:51:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Oct 27, 2020 - Wed, Oct 28, 2020
D7
Fri, Oct 30, 2020 - Sat, Oct 31, 2020
D5
Wed, Oct 28, 2020 - Thu, Oct 29, 2020
D8
Sat, Oct 31, 2020 - Sun, Nov 01, 2020
D6
Thu, Oct 29, 2020 - Fri, Oct 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240849
SPC AC 240849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models show a mid-level low over the southern Rockies
on Tuesday. This feature is forecast to move eastward across the
south-central U.S. during the middle part of next week, and
subsequently to the southern Appalachians/Carolinas late in the work
week. Models continue to differ on the evolution of the low/trough
with substantial model spread. Confidence is relatively low in the
quality of a returning warm sector across the central/northeast Gulf
Coast and possibly into the Carolinas during this timeframe.
Therefore, a predictability-too-low highlight characterizes the
Wednesday-Friday (day 5-day 7) period.
..Smith.. 10/24/2020
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