Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 25, 2020
Updated: Sun Oct 25 08:21:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Oct 28, 2020 - Thu, Oct 29, 2020
D7
Sat, Oct 31, 2020 - Sun, Nov 01, 2020
D5
Thu, Oct 29, 2020 - Fri, Oct 30, 2020
D8
Sun, Nov 01, 2020 - Mon, Nov 02, 2020
D6
Fri, Oct 30, 2020 - Sat, Oct 31, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250819
SPC AC 250819
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The primary features influencing potential for tornadoes and
damaging gusts in the extended period will be 1) tropical cyclone
Zeta impacting the central Gulf Coast and 2) its subsequent movement
as it becomes embedded within strong flow as a mid-level low over
the south-central U.S. moves eastward towards the southern
Appalachians through Thursday (day 5). Model guidance exhibits
considerable spread during the Wednesday-Thursday period such that
the combination of uncertainty in the timing/track of Zeta and the
merging of the frontal system render predictability-too-low
highlights for the time being across the central Gulf Coast and
parts of the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. By the
latter half of the extended period, a front will probably move
offshore the Southeast and a tranquil pattern for organized severe
will likely ensue.
..Smith.. 10/25/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
