Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 3, 2020
Updated: Tue Nov 3 09:51:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Nov 06, 2020 - Sat, Nov 07, 2020
D7
Mon, Nov 09, 2020 - Tue, Nov 10, 2020
D5
Sat, Nov 07, 2020 - Sun, Nov 08, 2020
D8
Tue, Nov 10, 2020 - Wed, Nov 11, 2020
D6
Sun, Nov 08, 2020 - Mon, Nov 09, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030949
SPC AC 030949
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential should remain low through day 4 and 5
(Friday-Saturday) as offshore flow persists over the Gulf keeping
richer low-level moisture confined to the Gulf Coast region. An
exception could be later day 5 when some of the global models
indicate south FL could be impacted by a tropical cyclone. However,
solutions differ considerably regarding the strength and trajectory
of this feature.
Days 6-7 (Sunday-Monday) Upper pattern will amplify with a large
upper trough becoming established across the western U.S. by day 6.
By day 7 a significant shortwave trough is forecast to eject
northeast through the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. While
the associated lee cyclone will contribute to the return of modified
CP air through the pre-frontal warm sector, it remains unclear if
moisture return will be sufficient for a more robust severe threat.
A better chance for severe storms might evolve by day 7 from a
portion of the central and southern Plains into the middle MS Valley
region as the strengthening cold front advances southeast and
interacts with a moistening boundary layer.
..Dial.. 11/03/2020
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