Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 4, 2020
Updated: Wed Nov 4 09:24:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Nov 07, 2020 - Sun, Nov 08, 2020
D7
Tue, Nov 10, 2020 - Wed, Nov 11, 2020
D5
Sun, Nov 08, 2020 - Mon, Nov 09, 2020
D8
Wed, Nov 11, 2020 - Thu, Nov 12, 2020
D6
Mon, Nov 09, 2020 - Tue, Nov 10, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040922
SPC AC 040922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Saturday) Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central and
northern High Plains, especially during the last half of the period
as a significant shortwave trough moves through the base of a
synoptic upper low and emerges over the central High Plains late
Saturday night. The northward advection of modified CP air will
commence, but boundary layer moisture and instability are expected
to remain insufficient for a threat of severe storms.
Day 5 (Sunday) Tropical cyclone Eta is forecast by the National
Hurricane Center to approach southern FL Sunday evening and might
undergo some strengthening, but predictability is not sufficient to
introduce severe probabilities at this time.
Elsewhere,in association with a shortwave trough ejecting northeast
through the central Plains, a lee cyclone will move northeast,
reaching ND during the evening with trailing cold front extending
southward through the northern and central Plains. Modified CP air
will continue advecting northward through pre-frontal warm sector
contributing to weak instability over the northern Plains and upper
MS Valley region. Thunderstorms might develop along this front
within a strongly sheared environment from the eastern Dakotas into
MN by evening. However, the anticipated marginal thermodynamic
environment could remain a limiting factor for a more robust severe
threat.
Day 6 (Monday) Some threat for strong to severe storms might exist
as storms develop along a cold front from the Midwest into the
central Plains. Some severe threat might also persist across FL
depending on track and magnitude of a tropical cyclone associated
with remnants of Eta. In both of these scenarios, predictability and
confidence in a more substantial severe threat remain low at this
time.
..Dial.. 11/04/2020
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