Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 5, 2020
Updated: Thu Nov 5 09:43:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Nov 08, 2020 - Mon, Nov 09, 2020
D7
Wed, Nov 11, 2020 - Thu, Nov 12, 2020
D5
Mon, Nov 09, 2020 - Tue, Nov 10, 2020
D8
Thu, Nov 12, 2020 - Fri, Nov 13, 2020
D6
Tue, Nov 10, 2020 - Wed, Nov 11, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050941
SPC AC 050941
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 5...
The medium-range models have a large upper-level low pressure system
in the western U.S. on Sunday, with southwest mid-level flow across
the central U.S. This general pattern is forecast to gradually shift
eastward on Monday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place for
both Sunday and Monday across the Southeast. Although thunderstorms
could develop in the Southeast in areas that heat up the most, a
severe threat is not expected due to weak instability.
...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, the models quickly eject the upper-level system
northeastward out of the Rockies and into the central U.S.
Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the system Tuesday afternoon
and evening along a front which is forecast to be located in the mid
Mississippi Valley by 00Z Wednesday. Instability could be strong
enough for a marginal or isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon.
On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level system across the
Great Lakes. If the timing of the system is correct, then a
potential for thunderstorms may develop along parts of the eastern
Seaboard. Instability is forecast to be weak along the east coast on
Wednesday which should minimize any severe potential. On Thursday,
the models move an upper-level trough quickly eastward across the
Rockies. While some moisture return could occur in the southern
Plains ahead of the system, instability is again forecast to be
weak. This would minimize any severe threat ahead of the system.
..Broyles.. 11/05/2020
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