Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 6, 2020
Updated: Fri Nov 6 10:01:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Nov 09, 2020 - Tue, Nov 10, 2020
D7
Thu, Nov 12, 2020 - Fri, Nov 13, 2020
D5
Tue, Nov 10, 2020 - Wed, Nov 11, 2020
D8
Fri, Nov 13, 2020 - Sat, Nov 14, 2020
D6
Wed, Nov 11, 2020 - Thu, Nov 12, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060959
SPC AC 060959
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
An upper-level low pressure system is forecast to move eastward
across the Four Corners region on Monday and into the southern
Plains on Tuesday. Some moisture return is expected ahead of the
approaching system in the southern Plains, where thunderstorm
development will be possible Monday night into Tuesday. Although an
isolated severe threat will be possible in the southern Plains, weak
instability should keep any threat isolated. The potential for
thunderstorm development is forecast to continue into Tuesday
evening across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks but weak
instability is again expected to keep any severe threat isolated.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday and Thursday, the medium-range models move the
upper-level trough into the Great Lakes and maintain southwest
mid-level flow across much of the continental United States. A moist
airmass is forecast to be in place along the eastern Seaboard where
thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday. The models
keep the airmass weakly unstable Wednesday afternoon along most of
the Eastern Seaboard suggesting that any severe threat will remain
marginal. On Thursday and Friday, the models quickly move an
upper-level trough across the Great Plains and into the Great Lakes
as another trough moves into the Rockies. Although thunderstorm
development will be possible ahead of this system in parts of the
Texas Coastal Plain and lower Mississippi Valley, weak instability
is again expected to keep any severe threat marginal. Predictability
is quite low during the mid week time-frame.
..Broyles.. 11/06/2020
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