Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 7, 2020
Updated: Sat Nov 7 09:53:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Nov 10, 2020 - Wed, Nov 11, 2020
D7
Fri, Nov 13, 2020 - Sat, Nov 14, 2020
D5
Wed, Nov 11, 2020 - Thu, Nov 12, 2020
D8
Sat, Nov 14, 2020 - Sun, Nov 15, 2020
D6
Thu, Nov 12, 2020 - Fri, Nov 13, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070951
SPC AC 070951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to quickly move northeastward from
the southern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along a front from the
southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period. Instability
is forecast to be weak along most of the front, suggesting any
severe threat will remain isolated. Surface dewpoints could reach
the lower 60s F in parts of the southern Plains where the severe
threat could be greater. However, the severe potential remains
highly uncertain due to instability concerns.
On Wednesday, the models move the upper-level trough into
southeastern Canada and maintain southwest mid-level flow across the
central and eastern United States. A moist airmass is forecast along
the Eastern Seaboard where thunderstorm development will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although an isolated severe threat
can not be ruled out, weak instability is expected to keep any
threat marginal Wednesday afternoon.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
From Thursday to Saturday, the models move an upper-level trough
from the Great Plains into the northeastern U.S. Moisture return
ahead of this system is forecast to be minimal. Thunderstorms could
develop Thursday afternoon in parts of the southern Plains and along
the coast of the Carolinas during the day on Friday. But instability
in these two areas should be weak, minimizing any severe potential.
No severe threat is expected on Saturday due to limited moisture
return in the southern U.S., but predictability is quite low at the
extended ranges.
..Broyles.. 11/07/2020
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