Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 8, 2020
Updated: Sun Nov 8 09:57:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Nov 11, 2020 - Thu, Nov 12, 2020
D7
Sat, Nov 14, 2020 - Sun, Nov 15, 2020
D5
Thu, Nov 12, 2020 - Fri, Nov 13, 2020
D8
Sun, Nov 15, 2020 - Mon, Nov 16, 2020
D6
Fri, Nov 13, 2020 - Sat, Nov 14, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080955
SPC AC 080955
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across
the Great Plains on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains
over much of the eastern half of the United States. At the surface,
a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the
Appalachian Mountains. A moist airmass should be in place along much
of the Eastern Seaboard, where thunderstorm development will be
possible from parts of southeastern New York southward into the
Carolinas. In spite of the moisture, instability is forecast to
remain weak ahead of the front. Although a few marginally severe
storms may develop, the weak instability should keep any severe
threat very isolated.
On Thursday, the front is forecast to move to the coast of the
Carolinas. Low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the front
across parts of the Carolinas and southeastern Georgia. Although
instability should remain weak ahead of the front, a marginal severe
threat can not be ruled out along the immediate coast from Georgia
northeastward to eastern North Carolina.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
On Friday, the medium-range models move a shortwave trough across
the southern Rockies and suggest moisture will return on the Texas
Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms could develop Friday afternoon along
the western edge of this moist airmass in the Texas Hill Country.
Convective coverage may expand northeastward across parts of the
southern Plains as moisture return takes place Friday night.
However, instability along the moist axis is expected to remain
weak, keeping any severe threat marginal.
On Saturday and Sunday, model solutions sharply diverge. Some
solutions move an upper-level trough into the southern Plains while
others move an upper-level trough northeastward into the Great Lakes
region. The models do suggest a moist airmass will be in place from
parts of east Texas eastward across much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms that form each day across this moist airmass should
have a potential for a isolated severe threat. However, weak
instability is again expected to keep any severe threat marginal.
..Broyles.. 11/08/2020
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