Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 9, 2020
Updated: Mon Nov 9 09:58:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Nov 12, 2020 - Fri, Nov 13, 2020
D7
Sun, Nov 15, 2020 - Mon, Nov 16, 2020
D5
Fri, Nov 13, 2020 - Sat, Nov 14, 2020
D8
Mon, Nov 16, 2020 - Tue, Nov 17, 2020
D6
Sat, Nov 14, 2020 - Sun, Nov 15, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090956
SPC AC 090956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models move an upper-level
trough from the High Plains east-northeastward into the Northeast. A
cold front is forecast to move to the southern Eastern Seaboard and
central Gulf Coast. Further west, moisture return may take place in
the parts of the southern Plains on Friday as a surface low deepens
in the central High Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible during
the late afternoon near the moist axis across west Texas and western
Oklahoma. A shortwave trough approaching the southern Plains Friday
evening may support continued thunderstorm development in the
overnight period. Although instability is forecast to be weak Friday
and Friday night, an isolated severe threat will be possible.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the models move the shortwave trough into the Ozarks.
Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture is forecast to advect
northward into the lower and mid Mississippi Valley. This combined
with strong deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat
from eastern Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas Saturday afternoon and
evening.
On Sunday and Monday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward into the western Atlantic as a large upper-level
trough moves into the central states. Although there is a large
amount of uncertainty, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
trough in parts of the Southeast on Sunday, and along the Eastern
Seaboard on Monday. Instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the
trough both days, suggesting that any severe threat will be
marginal.
..Broyles.. 11/09/2020
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