Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 10, 2020
Updated: Tue Nov 10 08:41:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Nov 13, 2020 - Sat, Nov 14, 2020
D7
Mon, Nov 16, 2020 - Tue, Nov 17, 2020
D5
Sat, Nov 14, 2020 - Sun, Nov 15, 2020
D8
Tue, Nov 17, 2020 - Wed, Nov 18, 2020
D6
Sun, Nov 15, 2020 - Mon, Nov 16, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100839
SPC AC 100839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast to amplify over the West on D4,
traveling across northern Mexico and toward the MS Valley by Sat/D5.
Ahead of this trough, temperatures aloft will be warm over much of
the Southeast, but low-level moisture will increase across the lower
MS and TN Valleys, aided by the residual trajectories from Eta. Weak
low pressure is forecast to develop across the OH Valley on Sat/D5,
with a cold front trailing southwestward into AR/MS/LA. At this
time, it appears instability will remain weak, with minimal severe
threat. The ECMWF is more amplified with the upper trough than the
GFS, and may hold marginal severe potential.
While model differences still exist on Sun/D6, the general consensus
is for an 80 kt elongated midlevel speed max to nose into the
central Plains on Sat/D5, with a deepening upper trough into the OH
Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast. Given the progressive nature of
this trough, high pressure is likely to spread rapidly east from the
Plains across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast by Mon/D7 morning,
pushing low-level moisture and any instability offshore. While
low-end severe potential may eventually materialize over parts of
the Southeast or Mid Atlantic given increasing winds aloft,
predictability is currently too low.
..Jewell.. 11/10/2020
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