Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 11, 2020
Updated: Wed Nov 11 09:29:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Nov 14, 2020 - Sun, Nov 15, 2020
D7
Tue, Nov 17, 2020 - Wed, Nov 18, 2020
D5
Sun, Nov 15, 2020 - Mon, Nov 16, 2020
D8
Wed, Nov 18, 2020 - Thu, Nov 19, 2020
D6
Mon, Nov 16, 2020 - Tue, Nov 17, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110927
SPC AC 110927
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper level trough over the Plains on Day 4/Sat will intensify
as it tracks across the Midwest and eastern U.S. through Day 5/Sun.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern Plains
and deepen as it tracks eastward across the Upper Midwest on Day
4/Sat, and into Quebec by early Day 6/Mon. A trailing cold front
attendant to the low will sweep eastward across the Plains to the
Atlantic and Gulf coasts by Monday morning. Ahead of the cold front,
modest moisture will return northward through the lower MS Valley to
the lower OH and TN Valleys on Day 5/Sun, and thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the Midwest and Mid-South vicinity. At this
time, it appears instability will be limited, and higher-quality
moisture displaces to the south of better forcing and stronger shear
profiles closer to the surface low and midlevel trough. Thus, severe
potential appears low.
The upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern
CONUS through Day 7/Tue, while an amplified upper ridge develops
across the western and central U.S. Strong surface high pressure
will develop from the Rockies eastward behind the weekend cold
frontal passage, and persist through much of the rest of the period,
precluding severe potential through early/middle of next week.
..Leitman.. 11/11/2020
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