Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Updated: Thu Nov 12 09:21:04 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Nov 15, 2020 - Mon, Nov 16, 2020
D7
Wed, Nov 18, 2020 - Thu, Nov 19, 2020
D5
Mon, Nov 16, 2020 - Tue, Nov 17, 2020
D8
Thu, Nov 19, 2020 - Fri, Nov 20, 2020
D6
Tue, Nov 17, 2020 - Wed, Nov 18, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120919
SPC AC 120919
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An amplified yet progressive large-scale pattern will exist late
this weekend through much of next week based on latest-available
guidance. On Day 4/Sunday, an upper trough is likely to continue an
east-northeastward transition over the Great Lakes/Northeast States
and Ontario/Quebec. Some thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern third of the CONUS. While a few strong fast-moving storms
could occur, organized severe thunderstorms do not appear overly
likely at this juncture. Pre-cold-frontal moisture/buoyancy will
tend to be very limited in conjunction for the more appreciable
forcing for ascent and stronger shear.
Thereafter, the severe-weather risk should be very low through the
early/middle part of next week including Days 5-8. Appreciable
low-level moisture will be shunted southward across the Gulf of
Mexico/Florida Straits with a cold front, with high pressure and
stable conditions otherwise prevailing east of the Rockies.
..Guyer.. 11/12/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT