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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Updated: Thu Nov 12 09:21:04 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 12, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Nov 15, 2020 - Mon, Nov 16, 2020 D7Wed, Nov 18, 2020 - Thu, Nov 19, 2020
D5Mon, Nov 16, 2020 - Tue, Nov 17, 2020 D8Thu, Nov 19, 2020 - Fri, Nov 20, 2020
D6Tue, Nov 17, 2020 - Wed, Nov 18, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 120919
   SPC AC 120919

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An amplified yet progressive large-scale pattern will exist late
   this weekend through much of next week based on latest-available
   guidance. On Day 4/Sunday, an upper trough is likely to continue an
   east-northeastward transition over the Great Lakes/Northeast States
   and Ontario/Quebec. Some thunderstorms will be possible across the
   eastern third of the CONUS. While a few strong fast-moving storms
   could occur, organized severe thunderstorms do not appear overly
   likely at this juncture. Pre-cold-frontal moisture/buoyancy will
   tend to be very limited in conjunction for the more appreciable
   forcing for ascent and stronger shear.

   Thereafter, the severe-weather risk should be very low through the
   early/middle part of next week including Days 5-8. Appreciable
   low-level moisture will be shunted southward across the Gulf of
   Mexico/Florida Straits with a cold front, with high pressure and
   stable conditions otherwise prevailing east of the Rockies.

   ..Guyer.. 11/12/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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