Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 22, 2020
Updated: Sun Nov 22 09:28:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Nov 25, 2020 - Thu, Nov 26, 2020
D7
Sat, Nov 28, 2020 - Sun, Nov 29, 2020
D5
Thu, Nov 26, 2020 - Fri, Nov 27, 2020
D8
Sun, Nov 29, 2020 - Mon, Nov 30, 2020
D6
Fri, Nov 27, 2020 - Sat, Nov 28, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220926
SPC AC 220926
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
As an upper trough/low moves across the central/eastern CONUS on Day
4/Wednesday, an isolated/marginal severe risk may continue across
parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast. Limited
low-level moisture and weak instability forecast across these
regions should temper the overall severe risk. Another large-scale
upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across the
western/central CONUS late this upcoming week. Medium-range guidance
is in general agreement with this scenario, although details in
surface low placement across the southern Plains and the northward
extent of the warm sector ahead of the upper trough remain rather
unclear. An organized severe thunderstorm risk appears possible in
association with this ejecting upper trough/low from Day 6/Friday
through Day 8/Sunday over some portion of the southern Plains, lower
MS Valley, and Southeast. Regardless, the timing/amplitude of this
feature and amount of instability that may be present remain too
uncertain to include 15% severe probabilities at this extended time
frame.
..Gleason.. 11/22/2020
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