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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 23, 2020
Updated: Mon Nov 23 09:38:03 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 23, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 23, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 23, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 23, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 23, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Nov 23, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Nov 26, 2020 - Fri, Nov 27, 2020 D7Sun, Nov 29, 2020 - Mon, Nov 30, 2020
D5Fri, Nov 27, 2020 - Sat, Nov 28, 2020 D8Mon, Nov 30, 2020 - Tue, Dec 01, 2020
D6Sat, Nov 28, 2020 - Sun, Nov 29, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230936
   SPC AC 230936

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

   Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A positively tilted large-scale upper trough should develop eastward
   across the western/central states on Day 4/Thursday. In the wake of
   a prior frontal intrusion, low-level moisture may return northward
   across parts of TX and the lower MS Valley from Day 4/Thursday into
   Day 5/Friday. Depending on the evolution of this upper trough and
   whether it closes off over the Southwest, it appears possible that
   at least an isolated/marginal severe threat may develop across parts
   of the southern Plains, lower MS Valley, and Southeast, mainly from
   Day 5/Friday into the upcoming weekend. Regardless, too much
   uncertainty currently exists regarding the placement/amplitude of
   the upper trough/low and related surface features to include any 15%
   severe probabilities at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 11/23/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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