Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 24, 2020
Updated: Tue Nov 24 09:54:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Nov 27, 2020 - Sat, Nov 28, 2020
D7
Mon, Nov 30, 2020 - Tue, Dec 01, 2020
D5
Sat, Nov 28, 2020 - Sun, Nov 29, 2020
D8
Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - Wed, Dec 02, 2020
D6
Sun, Nov 29, 2020 - Mon, Nov 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240952
SPC AC 240952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The evolution of a positively tilted upper trough across the
western/central CONUS remains uncertain from Day 4/Friday into the
upcoming weekend. Some medium-range guidance indicates that the
southern portion of the upper trough will close off over the Four
Corners vicinity on Day 4/Friday, and then move slowly eastward
across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley through the weekend.
Other guidance suggests that the upper trough will not close off,
and will instead progress eastward more rapidly. Regardless of which
scenario occurs, some severe threat may exist across parts of
central and coastal TX on Day 4/Friday, the lower MS
Valley/Southeast on Day 5/Saturday and Day 6/Sunday, and perhaps a
portion of the East Coast on Day 7/Monday. However, far too much
uncertainty exists in the synoptic-scale pattern over the
central/eastern CONUS to include 15% severe probabilities at this
time.
..Gleason.. 11/24/2020
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