Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 25, 2020
Updated: Wed Nov 25 09:56:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Nov 28, 2020 - Sun, Nov 29, 2020
D7
Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - Wed, Dec 02, 2020
D5
Sun, Nov 29, 2020 - Mon, Nov 30, 2020
D8
Wed, Dec 02, 2020 - Thu, Dec 03, 2020
D6
Mon, Nov 30, 2020 - Tue, Dec 01, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250954
SPC AC 250954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement regarding the
eastward advance of an upper low over the southern Plains on Day
4/Saturday. Any severe potential Saturday appears to be confined
along/south of a surface boundary which should be located across
parts of coastal/south TX and perhaps southern LA. Some phasing of
this upper low with a northern-stream upper trough over the Midwest
seems probable on Day 5/Sunday. A northward advance of a partially
modified Gulf airmass may occur over parts of the Southeast Sunday,
with an associated isolated/marginal severe risk. Differences in the
evolution of a highly amplified upper trough/low over the eastern
states become apparent in medium-range guidance by Day 6/Monday.
Regardless, a continued isolated/marginal severe threat may exist
Monday across the warm sector of a deepening surface cyclone from
parts of FL and the Southeast along the East Coast and potentially
extending into the Mid-Atlantic. For Day 4/Saturday through Day
6/Monday, too much uncertainty currently exists regarding inland
destabilization to include 15% severe probabilities for any day.
..Gleason.. 11/25/2020
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