Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 27, 2020
Updated: Fri Nov 27 09:47:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Nov 30, 2020 - Tue, Dec 01, 2020
D7
Thu, Dec 03, 2020 - Fri, Dec 04, 2020
D5
Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - Wed, Dec 02, 2020
D8
Fri, Dec 04, 2020 - Sat, Dec 05, 2020
D6
Wed, Dec 02, 2020 - Thu, Dec 03, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270945
SPC AC 270945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A continued isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across
mainly eastern parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as a
large-scale upper trough/low moves slowly across the eastern CONUS
on Day 4/Monday. Strong low/mid-level flow is forecast to be present
over these regions ahead of a cold front, but instability should
remain weak across the warm sector owing to fairly limited low-level
moisture. Confidence in a more substantial severe threat on Day
4/Monday remains too low to include 15% severe probabilities at this
time. Minimal potential for organized severe thunderstorms is
anticipated across the CONUS for Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday,
as offshore low-level trajectories should be maintained over much of
the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Predictability of the
synoptic-scale pattern in medium-range guidance appears low by late
next week, with any low-end severe potential remaining confined to
parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast vicinity and possibly FL.
..Gleason.. 11/27/2020
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