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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 11, 2020
Updated: Fri Dec 11 09:08:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 11, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 11, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 11, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 11, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 11, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 11, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Dec 14, 2020 - Tue, Dec 15, 2020 D7Thu, Dec 17, 2020 - Fri, Dec 18, 2020
D5Tue, Dec 15, 2020 - Wed, Dec 16, 2020 D8Fri, Dec 18, 2020 - Sat, Dec 19, 2020
D6Wed, Dec 16, 2020 - Thu, Dec 17, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 110906
   SPC AC 110906

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020

   Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific,
   it appears that another significant short wave trough will progress
   inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, before traversing the
   remainder of the nation by the middle to latter portion of next
   week.  While it appears that this feature could support significant
   surface cyclogenesis near or east of the Atlantic Seaboard late next
   week, medium-range guidance continues to suggest that any surface
   cyclogenesis over the interior U.S., east of the Rockies, will
   remain modest to weak.  A substantive inland return flow of moisture
   off the Gulf of Mexico appears unlikely, contributing to the
   maintenance of generally stable conditions and low convective
   potential.

   ..Kerr.. 12/11/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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