Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 14, 2020
Updated: Mon Dec 14 09:24:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Dec 17, 2020 - Fri, Dec 18, 2020
D7
Sun, Dec 20, 2020 - Mon, Dec 21, 2020
D5
Fri, Dec 18, 2020 - Sat, Dec 19, 2020
D8
Mon, Dec 21, 2020 - Tue, Dec 22, 2020
D6
Sat, Dec 19, 2020 - Sun, Dec 20, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140922
SPC AC 140922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that branching flow downstream of a
strong western/central mid-latitude Pacific jet may become more
amplified early next week. Until then, it appears there will be
little change, with much of the U.S. remaining under the influence
of one prominent belt, with a number of progressive embedded short
waves. Guidance indicates that potential for strong surface
cyclogenesis to the east of the U.S. Rockies is low during this
period, and there appears little opportunity for deep boundary-layer
moistening over the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, stable
conditions are expected to generally persist with low convective
potential.
..Kerr.. 12/14/2020
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