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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 23, 2020
Updated: Wed Dec 23 09:32:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 23, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 23, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 23, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 23, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 23, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Dec 23, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Dec 26, 2020 - Sun, Dec 27, 2020 D7Tue, Dec 29, 2020 - Wed, Dec 30, 2020
D5Sun, Dec 27, 2020 - Mon, Dec 28, 2020 D8Wed, Dec 30, 2020 - Thu, Dec 31, 2020
D6Mon, Dec 28, 2020 - Tue, Dec 29, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230930
   SPC AC 230930

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 AM CST Wed Dec 23 2020

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A relatively active upper pattern is anticipated from this weekend
   through the middle of next week. A shortwave trough will likely
   progress through southern Plains on D5/Saturday, with another
   shortwave in its wake over the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday.
   Dry and stable conditions ahead of these shortwaves will keep severe
   potential very low. 

   A third, potentially stronger system is expected to move from
   central/southern CA eastward across the Four Corners region and into
   the central/southern Plains early next week. Medium-range guidance
   has varying solutions for the evolution of this system, but some
   severe potential appears possible if enough moisture return occurs
   ahead of it.

   ..Mosier.. 12/23/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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