Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 24, 2020
Updated: Thu Dec 24 09:35:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Dec 27, 2020 - Mon, Dec 28, 2020
D7
Wed, Dec 30, 2020 - Thu, Dec 31, 2020
D5
Mon, Dec 28, 2020 - Tue, Dec 29, 2020
D8
Thu, Dec 31, 2020 - Fri, Jan 01, 2021
D6
Tue, Dec 29, 2020 - Wed, Dec 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240933
SPC AC 240933
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Thu Dec 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is currently expected to move quickly eastward
from the northern/central Plains through the mid/upper MS Valley, OH
Valley and Upper Great Lakes on D4/Sunday. Surface low associated
with this shortwave will take a similar path with an attendant cold
front sweeping eastward/southeastward across the OH,TN, and Lower MS
Valleys. Limited low-level moisture will likely preclude
thunderstorm development along the front.
Another northern-stream shortwave trough will follow quickly behind
the initial shortwave, moving through the northern Plains/Upper MS
Valley late D4/Sunday and early D5/Monday. A third, more substantial
southern-stream shortwave is currently forecast to move across the
Southwest/Four Corners on D5/Monday and into the Plains on
D6/Tuesday. Model guidance continues to struggle with both
model-to-model and run-to-run consistency regarding the evolution of
this system. Even with thee inconsistencies, the overall strength of
the system suggests some severe storms will be possible if enough
moisture return precedes it.
..Mosier.. 12/24/2020
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