Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 30, 2020
Updated: Wed Dec 30 08:28:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jan 02, 2021 - Sun, Jan 03, 2021
D7
Tue, Jan 05, 2021 - Wed, Jan 06, 2021
D5
Sun, Jan 03, 2021 - Mon, Jan 04, 2021
D8
Wed, Jan 06, 2021 - Thu, Jan 07, 2021
D6
Mon, Jan 04, 2021 - Tue, Jan 05, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300826
SPC AC 300826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Wed Dec 30 2020
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5...
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the mid Mississippi
Valley on Saturday as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of
the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
across the eastern Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorm development will
be possible ahead of the front during the day from northern Florida
into southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. Although surface
dewpoints should be in the 60s F ahead of the front, instability is
forecast to be very weak suggesting that any severe threat should be
marginal.
On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move through the
central Appalachians as another upper-level trough moves into the
Ozarks and Arklatex. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southward across the Florida Peninsula. Marginally severe
storms will be possible along and ahead of the front in southern
Florida Sunday afternoon.
...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
On Monday and Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to be in
place across the eastern third of the nation, which should limit
thunderstorm potential. On Wednesday, the models suggest an
upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern U.S. The
models have large spread concerning the timing of the upper-level
trough. Some moisture return could occur ahead of the trough in the
western part of the Gulf Coast, where marginally severe storms can
not be ruled out. However, uncertainty is substantial at this range
in the forecast period.
..Broyles.. 12/30/2020
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