Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 2, 2021
Updated: Sat Jan 2 08:52:02 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jan 05, 2021 - Wed, Jan 06, 2021
D7
Fri, Jan 08, 2021 - Sat, Jan 09, 2021
D5
Wed, Jan 06, 2021 - Thu, Jan 07, 2021
D8
Sat, Jan 09, 2021 - Sun, Jan 10, 2021
D6
Thu, Jan 07, 2021 - Fri, Jan 08, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020849
SPC AC 020849
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Sat Jan 02 2021
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough is likely to be situated over
the East, with shortwave ridging over the MS Valley occurring in
advance of an amplifying Plains upper trough. Due to a prominent
surface ridge over the eastern states, thunderstorms are unlikely.
As the Plains trough develops eastward toward the Arklatex and lower
MS Valley on Wednesday/D5, a deepening cut-off low is forecast to
form, with a cold front moving across east TX and becoming occluded
into AR and LA. Instability is forecast to be weak (at or below 200
J/kg) by the ECMWF across OK and TX, and even less as the narrow
moist sector shrinks with the occlusion. In addition, capping will
be a concern for thunderstorms in general.
Severe potential does not appear to get any better as the trough
continues eastward across the Southeast into Thursday/D6 and
Friday/D7, with minimal moisture return the primary limiter.
..Jewell.. 01/02/2021
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