Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 3, 2021
Updated: Sun Jan 3 07:51:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jan 06, 2021 - Thu, Jan 07, 2021
D7
Sat, Jan 09, 2021 - Sun, Jan 10, 2021
D5
Thu, Jan 07, 2021 - Fri, Jan 08, 2021
D8
Sun, Jan 10, 2021 - Mon, Jan 11, 2021
D6
Fri, Jan 08, 2021 - Sat, Jan 09, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030748
SPC AC 030748
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sun Jan 03 2021
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough with closed low will be situated over the central
and southern Plains on Wednesday/D4 and will move across the lower
MS Valley on Thursday/D5. This system will continue east across the
remainder of the Southeast through Friday/D6, exiting the CONUS by
00Z Saturday/D7.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to be situated over
eastern/coastal TX by 00Z Thursday/D5, and over southern MS by 12Z
Thursday. Ahead of this front, only meager low-level moisture return
is indicated, with minimal SBCAPE and a warm sector shrinking from
north to south due to occlusion. For the duration of this upper low
over land, it appears instability will be minimal, thus potential is
currently too low for any severe probabilities.
Another amplifying upper trough is shown by the models into the
southern Plains on Saturday/D7, then moving across the Deep South
and northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday/D8. However, given the
progressive pattern, there will be little opportunity for sufficient
moisture return and destabilization, thus potential remains low for
severe storms through Sunday/D8.
..Jewell.. 01/03/2021
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