Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 19, 2021
Updated: Tue Jan 19 10:01:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jan 22, 2021 - Sat, Jan 23, 2021
D7
Mon, Jan 25, 2021 - Tue, Jan 26, 2021
D5
Sat, Jan 23, 2021 - Sun, Jan 24, 2021
D8
Tue, Jan 26, 2021 - Wed, Jan 27, 2021
D6
Sun, Jan 24, 2021 - Mon, Jan 25, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190959
SPC AC 190959
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement day 4 (Friday
1-22), with respect to evolution of the large-scale features, but
subtle differences aloft begin to emerge day 5, and then increase
day 6 and beyond.
With that said, models generally agree that an upper system will
move slowly across the southwestern U.S. during the first half of
the period. Corresponding downstream surface development is
expected to occur over the southern Plains beginning day 5
(Saturday), but particularly day 6 (Sunday), after which model
divergence becomes too substantial to make even general inferences
regarding pattern evolution.
With little convective potential evident Friday, an increase in
thunderstorm activity may occur later in the day Saturday over the
south-central U.S., and continuing into Sunday as an increase in
southerly low-level flow permits at least some theta-e advection
from the western Gulf of Mexico. While some corresponding increase
in convective activity is expected, degree of any severe-weather
potential remains uncertain, and thus too low to introduce a risk
area at this time. Beyond Sunday, decreasing predictability
precludes any reasonable assessment of convective potential.
..Goss.. 01/19/2021
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