Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 22, 2021
Updated: Fri Jan 22 10:05:02 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jan 25, 2021 - Tue, Jan 26, 2021
D7
Thu, Jan 28, 2021 - Fri, Jan 29, 2021
D5
Tue, Jan 26, 2021 - Wed, Jan 27, 2021
D8
Fri, Jan 29, 2021 - Sat, Jan 30, 2021
D6
Wed, Jan 27, 2021 - Thu, Jan 28, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 221002
SPC AC 221002
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good large-scale
agreement through most of the period. Of primary interest from a
convective perspective, will be two short-wave troughs expected to
move out of the southwestern U.S. and quickly across the south
central and then southeastern portions of the country.
The first of these features -- initially progged to lie over the
Oklahoma vicinity at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday morning)
will move quickly east northeastward into/across the lower
Missouri/mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys into Day 5. An accompanying
surface low will likewise shift eastward across this same general
region, but at this time, it appears that available instability will
be quite limited, due to weak lapse rates in the surface to roughly
700mb layer. As such, any potential for severe weather appears low
-- below the 15% threshold for areal inclusion.
As this system weakens and shifts off the East Coast Day 5
(Tuesday), a second short-wave trough crossing the southwestern U.S.
is expected to reach the into the central and southern Plains late
Tuesday/early Wednesday (Day 6). The system is then progged to
continue eastward to the Tennessee Valley late Day 6/early Day 7,
before moving off the Atlantic Coast prior to the start of Day 8.
However, a cool/stable boundary layer is forecast to spread
southward into the south central and southeastern U.S. in advance of
this feature, and thus -- with the primary surface baroclinic zone
progged to lie over the northern Gulf of Mexico, only a muted
surface response is expected in association with the advance of this
system. As such, conditions will likely remain thermodynamically
unfavorable for any appreciable severe weather risk through the
middle and latter stages of the period.
..Goss.. 01/22/2021
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