Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 25, 2021
Updated: Mon Jan 25 09:48:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jan 28, 2021 - Fri, Jan 29, 2021
D7
Sun, Jan 31, 2021 - Mon, Feb 01, 2021
D5
Fri, Jan 29, 2021 - Sat, Jan 30, 2021
D8
Mon, Feb 01, 2021 - Tue, Feb 02, 2021
D6
Sat, Jan 30, 2021 - Sun, Jan 31, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250946
SPC AC 250946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models exhibit fair agreement
through the medium-range period, though differences in strength and
timing of the advance of smaller-scale features is evident
throughout the period.
In general however, the period will be characterized primarily by
the slow evolution/migration of a trough -- initially just off the
West Coast -- that is progged to traverse the entire U.S. and reside
near the East Coast at the end of Day 8.
As this system progresses, an associated surface cyclone/frontal
system is forecast to emerge into the Plains by Day 6 (Saturday),
and then shift steadily eastward until moving off the East Coast
late Day 7/Day 8.
Preceding the advance of the surface system however, strong surface
cyclogenesis off the East Coast Day 4 (Thursday) will be followed by
a surge of cold continental air across the eastern U.S. and through
the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely lead to only a very
incompletely modified return of low-level air ahead of the advancing
surface system, and thus likelihood for very minimal instability.
As such, risk for severe weather appears low, through the period.
..Goss.. 01/25/2021
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