Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 26, 2021
Updated: Tue Jan 26 09:57:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jan 29, 2021 - Sat, Jan 30, 2021
D7
Mon, Feb 01, 2021 - Tue, Feb 02, 2021
D5
Sat, Jan 30, 2021 - Sun, Jan 31, 2021
D8
Tue, Feb 02, 2021 - Wed, Feb 03, 2021
D6
Sun, Jan 31, 2021 - Mon, Feb 01, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260954
SPC AC 260954
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are again exhibiting fair model-to-model
agreement through most of the medium range, in terms of larger-scale
features. The overall scenario remains that a trough over the
western U.S. at the start of the period will gradually evolve while
shifting slowly but steadily eastward, finally reaching/moving off
the East Coast late Day 7 into Day 8 (early next week).
This system will be accompanied by a fairly well developed surface
low/frontal system, first emerging into the Plains late Day 4/early
Day 5 (Saturday morning). While southerly low-level flow within the
warm sector of this cyclone will permit theta-e advection to occur
into the south-central U.S., the prior intrusion of cold continental
air through the Gulf of Mexico will be incompletely modified in
advance of this system. Thus, minimal instability is anticipated,
and thus, only weak -- and largely elevated -- convection is
expected. As the system progresses through the rest of the period,
an increasingly stable airmass with eastward extent will likely
preclude any severe risk through the period.
..Goss.. 01/26/2021
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