Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 6, 2021
Updated: Sat Feb 6 09:27:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Feb 09, 2021 - Wed, Feb 10, 2021
D7
Fri, Feb 12, 2021 - Sat, Feb 13, 2021
D5
Wed, Feb 10, 2021 - Thu, Feb 11, 2021
D8
Sat, Feb 13, 2021 - Sun, Feb 14, 2021
D6
Thu, Feb 11, 2021 - Fri, Feb 12, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060924
SPC AC 060924
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CST Sat Feb 06 2021
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Run-to-run model consistency continues to be an issue in the medium
to extended time range. In the mean, upper troughing will persist
across much of the CONUS, with a series of embedded shortwave
troughs ejecting from the Rockies eastward through the period.
Surface high pressure will generally be maintained over the northern
Plains and much of the Midwest, resulting in a cold and dry air mass
over those regions for the next week or so. Guidance has wavered
with regard to how far south this arctic air mass intrusion will
progress and the timing of such. Some guidance suggests that a cold
front will dive southeast across the southern Plains and into the
Southeast late in the week, potentially leading to thunderstorms and
a low-end severe threat across the Gulf Coast states around Day
5/Wed-Day 6/Thu. However, this signal has not been consistent. As
such, confidence is low in any severe potential during the Day 4-8
period.
..Leitman.. 02/06/2021
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