Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 7, 2021
Updated: Sun Feb 7 09:28:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Feb 10, 2021 - Thu, Feb 11, 2021
D7
Sat, Feb 13, 2021 - Sun, Feb 14, 2021
D5
Thu, Feb 11, 2021 - Fri, Feb 12, 2021
D8
Sun, Feb 14, 2021 - Mon, Feb 15, 2021
D6
Fri, Feb 12, 2021 - Sat, Feb 13, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070926
SPC AC 070926
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A series of shortwave upper troughs are expected to migrate through
larger-scale troughing across the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period.
Some strong to severe storm potential may develop from the ArkLaTex
vicinity into the lower MS Valley on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu as the initial
shortwave ejects eastward from the southwest U.S. to the
Mid-Atlantic during that time frame. Southerly flow ahead of the
trough will allow moisture to surge northward from southern and
eastern TX through the Gulf coast states ahead of an arctic cold
front. This warm advection regime ahead of the front would likely
result in elevated thunderstorm activity to the cool side of the
warm front over the Gulf coast region, or undercut by the advancing
cold front. Medium range guidance run-to-run consistency continues
to be poor, and the timing of these features varies, resulting in
low predictability of severe potential.
Beyond Day 5/Thu, guidance suggests several surges of arctic air
will overspread much of the CONUS, resulting in cold and stable
conditions and limiting thunderstorm activity through the weekend.
..Leitman.. 02/07/2021
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