Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 8, 2021
Updated: Mon Feb 8 09:10:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Feb 11, 2021 - Fri, Feb 12, 2021
D7
Sun, Feb 14, 2021 - Mon, Feb 15, 2021
D5
Fri, Feb 12, 2021 - Sat, Feb 13, 2021
D8
Mon, Feb 15, 2021 - Tue, Feb 16, 2021
D6
Sat, Feb 13, 2021 - Sun, Feb 14, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080908
SPC AC 080908
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Mon Feb 08 2021
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period,
with a series of troughs migrating across the CONUS. The first upper
trough in this series will spread eastward across the Plains and
toward the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Thu. At the surface, an arctic
air mass will percolate south and east behind a cold front,
extending from the coastal Carolinas to the central Gulf coast
vicinity by Day 5/Fri morning. Thunderstorm potential will exist
across parts of the Southeast in the vicinity of the front on
Thursday and Friday, though most of this activity is expected to
remain elevated/to the cool side of the boundary, limiting severe
potential in the absence of stronger surface cyclogenesis.
Strong surface high pressure will continue to build south/southeast
across the Plains and Midwest, as a second upper trough digs across
the western states and shifts eastward over the Plains and Midwest
during the weekend. This will reinforce a bitterly cold air mass
across much of the U.S. through the end of the period, precluding
severe thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 02/08/2021
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