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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 9, 2021
Updated: Tue Feb 9 09:22:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 9, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 9, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 9, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 9, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 9, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 9, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Feb 12, 2021 - Sat, Feb 13, 2021 D7Mon, Feb 15, 2021 - Tue, Feb 16, 2021
D5Sat, Feb 13, 2021 - Sun, Feb 14, 2021 D8Tue, Feb 16, 2021 - Wed, Feb 17, 2021
D6Sun, Feb 14, 2021 - Mon, Feb 15, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090919
   SPC AC 090919

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 AM CST Tue Feb 09 2021

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Severe potential will be low during the Day 4-8 period. Strong
   surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will persist across much
   of the CONUS through at least Day 7/Monday. Thunderstorms are
   possible across parts of GA/FL on Day 4/Friday as a cold front sags
   southward and stalls over northern FL. Severe storms are not
   expected with this activity given poor lapse rates and weak forcing.
   Given the persistent arctic airmass over the eastern two-thirds of
   the CONUS, thunderstorm activity will remain limited.

   ..Leitman.. 02/09/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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