Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 10, 2021
Updated: Wed Feb 10 09:16:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Feb 13, 2021 - Sun, Feb 14, 2021
D7
Tue, Feb 16, 2021 - Wed, Feb 17, 2021
D5
Sun, Feb 14, 2021 - Mon, Feb 15, 2021
D8
Wed, Feb 17, 2021 - Thu, Feb 18, 2021
D6
Mon, Feb 15, 2021 - Tue, Feb 16, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100913
SPC AC 100913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Wed Feb 10 2021
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through at least
Day 6/Mon. A series of upper troughs will allow reinforcing shots of
cold air to spread southeast across the Plains and Midwest. While a
cold and dry airmass will settle across the Southeast U.S.,
southwesterly deep-layer flow will prevail, maintaining weak warm
advection across the region with a surface boundary extending across
the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern FL for much of the period.
This will allow for periods of showers and thunderstorms across
parts of the Southeast, but severe potential appears low.
The exception may be around Day 6/Mon or Day 7/Tue when a shortwave
trough is forecast by some guidance to develop eastward across
northern/central Mexico and into the Gulf, before lifting northeast
toward the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. If this occurs,
surface cyclogenesis across the lower MS/TN Valley vicinity could
result in a favorable warm sector overlapping with strong shear and
upper forcing across parts of the Southeast ahead of another strong
cold front. Medium-range guidance currently differs in timing and
intensity of these features, resulting in low predictability, but
severe probabilities could be needed in future outlooks if
confidence in this scenario increases.
..Leitman.. 02/10/2021
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