Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 11, 2021
Updated: Thu Feb 11 09:15:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Feb 14, 2021 - Mon, Feb 15, 2021
D7
Wed, Feb 17, 2021 - Thu, Feb 18, 2021
D5
Mon, Feb 15, 2021 - Tue, Feb 16, 2021
D8
Thu, Feb 18, 2021 - Fri, Feb 19, 2021
D6
Tue, Feb 16, 2021 - Wed, Feb 17, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 110913
SPC AC 110913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period due to a
persistent arctic airmass over much of the CONUS. The exception will
be over FL into parts of southern GA and perhaps the eastern
Carolinas around Day 5/Monday and Day 6/Tuesday. Medium-range
guidance will bring an intense upper trough eastward from the
southern Plains/northern Mexico early Monday to the Mid-Atlantic/
Northeast vicinity by early Day 7/Wednesday. As this occurs, surface
cyclogenesis is forecast to strengthen and track over the central
Gulf coast vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic around Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. Strengthening shear will overspread the region as
Gulf moisture surges northward ahead of the surface low and
attendant cold front. This could result in increasing severe
potential across parts of the Southeast Monday and Tuesday. At this
time, guidance varies in the timing and latitude of these features.
As a result, predictability of severe potential is low, though
probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
..Leitman.. 02/11/2021
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