Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 12, 2021
Updated: Fri Feb 12 09:27:02 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Feb 15, 2021 - Tue, Feb 16, 2021
D7
Thu, Feb 18, 2021 - Fri, Feb 19, 2021
D5
Tue, Feb 16, 2021 - Wed, Feb 17, 2021
D8
Fri, Feb 19, 2021 - Sat, Feb 20, 2021
D6
Wed, Feb 17, 2021 - Thu, Feb 18, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120925
SPC AC 120925
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast to develop eastward across parts of the
central/eastern CONUS from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday.
Low-level moisture should return northward across parts of the Gulf
Coast states and the Carolinas ahead of a northeastward-developing
surface low. A severe risk may develop across parts of these
regions, mainly from late Monday into Tuesday. However, confidence
in sufficient destabilization to support surface-based storms is not
great enough to include 15% severe probabilities for now.
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that another
large-scale upper trough will move across the central/eastern states
around the Day 6/Wednesday to Day 7/Thursday time frame. Some severe
risk may once again materialize across parts of the central Gulf
Coast states and perhaps the Carolinas as low-level moisture returns
northward across these areas. Regardless, there is far too much
uncertainty in the prospect for substantial boundary-layer
destabilization to include any severe probabilities at this extended
time frame.
..Gleason.. 02/12/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
