Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 24, 2021
Updated: Wed Feb 24 09:52:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Feb 27, 2021 - Sun, Feb 28, 2021
D7
Tue, Mar 02, 2021 - Wed, Mar 03, 2021
D5
Sun, Feb 28, 2021 - Mon, Mar 01, 2021
D8
Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - Thu, Mar 04, 2021
D6
Mon, Mar 01, 2021 - Tue, Mar 02, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240950
SPC AC 240950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Wed Feb 24 2021
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An initially prominent mid-level high and amplified ridging across
the eastern Pacific likely will become suppressed by a series of
short wave perturbations emerging from the upstream Pacific, late
this week into the weekend. This has been, perhaps, the main point
of consistency in the medium-range guidance over the past several
days. However, blocking may persist within the large-scale flow to
some degree, and the pattern predictability, in general, appears
relatively low. Short wave developments, in particular, have been
highly variable within the various model output.
For the period late this weekend into the middle of next week,
guidance appears to be trending toward a solution with decreasing
potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
southern Rockies. Low amplitude wave development might still be
possible along an evolving frontal zone across parts of the southern
Great Plains through the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast states, and
this could still be accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather. However, the potential for the development of more than
relatively marginal conditions for severe thunderstorms currently
seems low.
..Kerr.. 02/24/2021
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