Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 25, 2021
Updated: Thu Feb 25 09:55:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Feb 28, 2021 - Mon, Mar 01, 2021
D7
Wed, Mar 03, 2021 - Thu, Mar 04, 2021
D5
Mon, Mar 01, 2021 - Tue, Mar 02, 2021
D8
Thu, Mar 04, 2021 - Fri, Mar 05, 2021
D6
Tue, Mar 02, 2021 - Wed, Mar 03, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250953
SPC AC 250953
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Blocking may persist to some degree within the evolving large-scale
pattern over the eastern Pacific late this weekend into early next
week, maintaining a split flow with embedded short wave developments
characterized by a relatively low degree of predictability. In
general, though, by the middle of next week, it does appear that a
progression of short waves will contribute to the suppression of
fairly prominent initial subtropical ridging centered over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico/northwestern Caribbean. There also
appears consensus that amplified large-scale troughing will evolve
across the eastern Pacific (mostly to the west of the Pacific
coast), with downstream large-scale ridging building inland of the
Pacific coast through the U.S. Great Plains and Canadian Prairies.
While developments east of the Rockies are more uncertain, a frontal
zone initially extending from near or south of the Texas Big Bend
into the Mid Atlantic Coast region may provide a focus for
continuing thunderstorm development, and perhaps at least some
severe weather potential. In the wake of a deepening surface
cyclone across the Great Lakes into Quebec on Sunday, this frontal
zone may shift southward into the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast
states by early next week. As it does, it is possible that
destabilization along and south of it could become sufficient to
support vigorous thunderstorms with the potential to produce
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a risk for tornadoes, in the
presence of strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear.
As the frontal zone becomes quasi-stationary across the southern
tier of the U.S. during the early to middle portion of next week,
the extent of any continuing severe weather potential will largely
depend on the strength of subsequent surface wave development along
it. There has been, and continues to be, considerable variability
within medium range output concerning this.
..Kerr.. 02/25/2021
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