Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 23, 2021
Updated: Tue Mar 23 08:47:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Mar 26, 2021 - Sat, Mar 27, 2021
D7
Mon, Mar 29, 2021 - Tue, Mar 30, 2021
D5
Sat, Mar 27, 2021 - Sun, Mar 28, 2021
D8
Tue, Mar 30, 2021 - Wed, Mar 31, 2021
D6
Sun, Mar 28, 2021 - Mon, Mar 29, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230845
SPC AC 230845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Friday) - Deeper forcing for ascent attending the shortwave
trough moving through the Northeast States will become increasingly
removed from the moist warm sector farther south. Though a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out along trailing portions of the
front from the Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas, confidence in a more
robust severe threat is low at this time.
Day 5 (Saturday) - An upper low is forecast to cutoff over the
Southwest States with weak, very low amplitude shortwave ridging
along the Gulf Coast states. A warm front will return inland through
the lower MS Valley during the day accompanied by a moist boundary
layer and destabilization. The most likely scenario is for storms to
develop during the evening or overnight along and north of warm
front as the low-level jet strengthens. Strong effective shear will
exist in this regime and a few severe storms with large hail are
possible. Severe probabilities may be introduced for this scenario
in later updates.
Day 6 (Sunday) - A cold front will surge southeast in response to an
amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough. At least modest
instability is expected in pre-frontal warm sector where storms may
develop through the Southeast States. If models continue to show
consistency with this scenario, severe probabilities may be
introduced on the next update.
..Dial.. 03/23/2021
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