Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 25, 2021
Updated: Thu Mar 25 09:07:02 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
56,869
10,899,951
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Mar 28, 2021 - Mon, Mar 29, 2021
D7
Wed, Mar 31, 2021 - Thu, Apr 01, 2021
D5
Mon, Mar 29, 2021 - Tue, Mar 30, 2021
D8
Thu, Apr 01, 2021 - Fri, Apr 02, 2021
D6
Tue, Mar 30, 2021 - Wed, Mar 31, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250904
SPC AC 250904
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Sunday) - Some threat for severe storms is expected Monday
mainly across a portion of the Carolinas into far southeast VA.
Low-level moisture with low 60s F dewpoints will have returned
through the warm sector contributing to modest instability. Storms
are expected to develop along a cold front associated with a
northern-stream shortwave trough during the afternoon and early
evening. Activity will be embedded within strong vertical shear
supportive of a few organized severe storms.
Other strong storms may continue farther southwest along the front
into a portion of the Southeast States, but confidence in a more
robust severe risk in this region is not particularly high.
Day 5 (Monday) - The cold front is expected to have moved offshore
and the southwest portion of this boundary should stall over the
northern Gulf. ECMWF suggests the front will retreat northward
allowing a small warm sector to move inland across LA and MS.
However, this will depend on the speed of ejection and amplitude of
the upper low that will close off over the Southwestern States. The
ECMWF has trended farther south with this feature the previous few
runs.
Day 6 (Tuesday-Wednesday) - a broad moist warm sector will likely
advect inland through central and eastern TX into the lower MS
Valley and Southeast. This will occur in advance of the next
northern-stream upper trough and its associated cold front. While
severe storms are probable with this scenario, considerable model
differences still exist with respect to the amplitude and speed of
the upper trough, so will maintain low predictability this update.
..Dial.. 03/25/2021
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