Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 26, 2021
Updated: Fri Mar 26 08:49:02 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Mar 29, 2021 - Tue, Mar 30, 2021
D7
Thu, Apr 01, 2021 - Fri, Apr 02, 2021
D5
Tue, Mar 30, 2021 - Wed, Mar 31, 2021
D8
Fri, Apr 02, 2021 - Sat, Apr 03, 2021
D6
Wed, Mar 31, 2021 - Thu, Apr 01, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260847
SPC AC 260847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Monday) - Primary model differences arise early in the period
regarding the evolution of the shortwave trough now moving southeast
toward the Great Basin region. Some models maintain phasing with the
northern stream while other solutions maintain a separate southern
stream trough that continues through the Gulf Coast states Monday.
In either case, a dominant northern-stream trough will drive a cold
front into the northern Gulf with limited moisture return inland.
Day 5 (Tuesday) - Richer moisture will begin returning through TX
and into the Gulf Coast states as the front retreats northward in
response to increasing southerly winds ahead of a northern-stream
trough that will amplify across the Plains. Thunderstorms will
likely initiate along the accompanying, southeast-advancing cold
front and continue through east TX into the lower MS and TN Valley
regions. The overall setup appears ana-frontal, and at this time
does not appear conducive for a robust severe threat.
Day 6 (Wednesday) - Thunderstorms will continue developing along the
cold front as it moves through the Southeast States during the day
and into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic later in the day and into
the evening. However, confidence in a more substantial severe threat
remains low at this time.
Days 7 and 8 appear to have low potential for severe storms as the
front moves offshore with building surface high pressure and stable
conditions inland.
..Dial.. 03/26/2021
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