Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 27, 2021
Updated: Sat Mar 27 08:41:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Mar 30, 2021 - Wed, Mar 31, 2021
D7
Fri, Apr 02, 2021 - Sat, Apr 03, 2021
D5
Wed, Mar 31, 2021 - Thu, Apr 01, 2021
D8
Sat, Apr 03, 2021 - Sun, Apr 04, 2021
D6
Thu, Apr 01, 2021 - Fri, Apr 02, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270839
SPC AC 270839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 5...
The models are in fairly good agreement early in the Day 4 to 8
period. An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across
the southern and central Rockies on Tuesday and across the Great
Plains on Wednesday. Moisture advection is forecast across parts of
the Southeast ahead of a cold front moving southeastward through the
central U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the
central Gulf Coast states on Tuesday, along a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture. Thunderstorm development will again be possible
in the central Gulf Coast states on Wednesday as the cold front
approaches. Additional storms may form ahead of the front on
Wednesday from Georgia into the Carolinas. An isolated severe threat
may develop in these areas but predictability is too low to warrant
adding any 15 percent contours.
...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
eastward across the eastern U.S. and into the western Atlantic. A
northwest flow pattern is forecast to develop in the wake of the
upper-level trough across much of the eastern half of the nation.
This will help usher a cool and dry airmass into the central and
southern U.S. late in the week, minimizing the convective potential.
..Broyles.. 03/27/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
