Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 28, 2021
Updated: Sun Mar 28 08:44:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Mar 31, 2021 - Thu, Apr 01, 2021
D7
Sat, Apr 03, 2021 - Sun, Apr 04, 2021
D5
Thu, Apr 01, 2021 - Fri, Apr 02, 2021
D8
Sun, Apr 04, 2021 - Mon, Apr 05, 2021
D6
Fri, Apr 02, 2021 - Sat, Apr 03, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280842
SPC AC 280842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
The medium-range models begin the Day 4 to 8 period in good
agreement, moving an upper-level trough across the Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to advance
southeastward across the Southeast, where isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible. Model forecasts keep instability
weak ahead of the front suggesting any threat could be marginal and
localized. The cold front is forecast to move quickly southeastward
across Florida on Thursday as a cool and dry high pressure system
influences the eastern half of the nation. This is expected to
minimize the convective potential for both Thursday and Friday.
...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the models develop an upper-level ridge across the
western U.S. and suggest that moisture could increase across south
and central Texas. Isolated thunderstorm development would be
possible on the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Texas
Hill Country to the middle Texas Coast. Weak instability will
probably minimize any severe threat. On Sunday, model solutions
diverge. Some solutions return moisture northward into the southern
and central Plains while others keep the moist airmass near the
Texas Coast. This large spread makes predictability low concerning
the severe potential on Sunday.
..Broyles.. 03/28/2021
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