Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 31, 2021
Updated: Wed Mar 31 09:01:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Apr 03, 2021 - Sun, Apr 04, 2021
D7
Tue, Apr 06, 2021 - Wed, Apr 07, 2021
D5
Sun, Apr 04, 2021 - Mon, Apr 05, 2021
D8
Wed, Apr 07, 2021 - Thu, Apr 08, 2021
D6
Mon, Apr 05, 2021 - Tue, Apr 06, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310859
SPC AC 310859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to show a mostly quiet upper-air
pattern for severe potential in the extended period. A mean
mid-level ridge will reside over the High Plains this weekend
through the early part of next week. Model spread increases towards
the end of the period and the early stages of low-level moisture
return into the Great Plains will concurrently occur---resulting in
a predictability-too-low highlight.
..Smith.. 03/31/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
