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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Updated: Thu Apr 1 08:31:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Apr 04, 2021 - Mon, Apr 05, 2021 D7Wed, Apr 07, 2021 - Thu, Apr 08, 2021
D5Mon, Apr 05, 2021 - Tue, Apr 06, 2021 D8Thu, Apr 08, 2021 - Fri, Apr 09, 2021
D6Tue, Apr 06, 2021 - Wed, Apr 07, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010829
   SPC AC 010829

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 AM CDT Thu Apr 01 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A progressive upper-air pattern is forecast during the extended
   period.  Initially, a mid-level ridge is forecast over the central
   U.S. during the Sunday-Monday period as a mid-level trough moves
   into the western U.S.  Models begin to diverge considerably by
   Tuesday with the subsequent evolution of the western U.S. trough as
   it moves eastward into the Great Plains.  Thunderstorm chances will
   likely begin to increase across parts of the central U.S. by
   Tuesday/Wednesday as low-level moisture begins to increase in the
   southern-central Great Plains and lower MS Valley.  Predictability
   concerns preclude specific mention of a potential spatial area at
   this time until model agreement improves.

   ..Smith.. 04/01/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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