Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 1, 2021
Updated: Thu Apr 1 08:31:03 UTC 2021
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Apr 04, 2021 - Mon, Apr 05, 2021
D7
Wed, Apr 07, 2021 - Thu, Apr 08, 2021
D5
Mon, Apr 05, 2021 - Tue, Apr 06, 2021
D8
Thu, Apr 08, 2021 - Fri, Apr 09, 2021
D6
Tue, Apr 06, 2021 - Wed, Apr 07, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010829
SPC AC 010829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Thu Apr 01 2021
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-air pattern is forecast during the extended
period. Initially, a mid-level ridge is forecast over the central
U.S. during the Sunday-Monday period as a mid-level trough moves
into the western U.S. Models begin to diverge considerably by
Tuesday with the subsequent evolution of the western U.S. trough as
it moves eastward into the Great Plains. Thunderstorm chances will
likely begin to increase across parts of the central U.S. by
Tuesday/Wednesday as low-level moisture begins to increase in the
southern-central Great Plains and lower MS Valley. Predictability
concerns preclude specific mention of a potential spatial area at
this time until model agreement improves.
..Smith.. 04/01/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
