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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 2, 2021
Updated: Fri Apr 2 08:30:03 UTC 2021
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 2, 2021
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 2, 2021
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 2, 2021
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 2, 2021
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 2, 2021
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 2, 2021
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Apr 05, 2021 - Tue, Apr 06, 2021 D7Thu, Apr 08, 2021 - Fri, Apr 09, 2021
D5Tue, Apr 06, 2021 - Wed, Apr 07, 2021 D8Fri, Apr 09, 2021 - Sat, Apr 10, 2021
D6Wed, Apr 07, 2021 - Thu, Apr 08, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020827
   SPC AC 020827

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 AM CDT Fri Apr 02 2021

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in showing a
   mid-level low/trough over the Interior West on Monday (day 4).  As
   the western U.S. disturbance moves eastward into the central U.S.
   during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, the risk for thunderstorms
   will increase for portions of the central states.  Considerable
   uncertainty exists for both thunderstorms and any potential severe
   risk as this mid-level feature interacts with northward-advecting
   Gulf moisture.  By the latter part of the extended period, large
   model spread is evident.

   ..Smith.. 04/02/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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